Retirement Calculator
Find the nest egg you need under the 4% rule, project your savings in today's dollars, and see the monthly saving that closes the gap.
Retirement Goal Status
What a retirement projection can and cannot tell you
Every retirement projection rests on assumptions that compound over decades, which means small differences in inputs produce enormous differences in output. Shifting an assumed return from 7% to 5% can cut a 30-year projection by a third. Treat the figure as a direction of travel, not a forecast, and re-run it as reality arrives.
Two adjustments make a projection more honest. The first is inflation: a projected $2 million in 2056 does not buy what $2 million buys today. At 3% inflation, purchasing power roughly halves every 24 years, so either project in today's money using a real return (nominal return minus inflation) or accept that the headline number is inflated. The second issequence-of-returns risk: a market fall in the first few years of drawdown does far more damage than the same fall later, because you are selling assets to live on while they are depressed. Average returns conceal this entirely.
The 4% rule — withdrawing 4% of the starting balance, adjusted for inflation each year — remains a reasonable planning anchor, and implies a target of roughly 25 times annual spending. It came from historical US data over 30-year periods, so it is a starting point rather than a law, and it says nothing about longer retirements, different markets, or the fact that real spending tends to fall in later life.
Frequently asked questions
What is the 4% rule in retirement?
The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your total retirement nest egg in the first year of retirement to sustain your savings for 30 years.
How much do I need to retire?
A common starting point is 25 times annual expenses, the inverse of a 4% withdrawal rate. On $60,000 of spending that is $1.5 million, less whatever pensions or social security will cover. Longer retirements, early retirement or lower expected returns all argue for a larger multiple.
What is sequence of returns risk?
The danger of poor returns early in retirement while you are withdrawing. Two portfolios with identical average returns can end very differently depending on the order those returns arrive, because withdrawals during a downturn sell more shares. It is why bond allocations typically rise near retirement.
How much should I be saving?
Commonly cited guidance is 15% of gross income including any employer match, starting early. Starting later requires substantially more - beginning at 35 rather than 25 can roughly double the required rate for the same outcome. Capturing the full employer match first is always the highest-return move available.